I'm scared. Somebody hod my hand!
So while wading through /reddit today I stumbled on the below video. It deals with the future of automation and how basically all of us will at some point be obsoleted. Now I used to be a staunch believer in the Luddite Fallacy, but the more and more I look into this and think about it more, there seems to be a point where the Luddite Fallacy ceases to work.
We live in exciting times right now, on a verge of some earth shaking changes both economically and socially. Some of these changes will happen in our lifetimes, some will happen in or kids and grand kids lifetimes, but the changes are inevitably coming and at a fast rate, faster than anyone though. What I wanted to do with this thread is explore the economic aspects of this and whether the world becomes a dystopia or the utopia we all dream of. Are we ready for these changes? How will our economy change? What will happen with the millions of people unemployed in the inevitable transition period?
Last edited by mkopec; 02-19-2015 at 07:10 PM.
But how can there be rich without the poor buying their shit?
Is this narrated by text to speech, or by someone with horrible voice cadence.
seemed like text to speech to me but honestly am not sure.
This is basically why I decided to go into psychology, rather than staying in IT or making another attempt at a CS degree. We'll make computers that fix themselves and eventually program themselves within my lifetime, but people will always be broken and likely just keep getting crazier. Especially if machines make people idle and strip them of vocational identity.
You dont think they will have bots that do your job, mist? Have you watched the vijeo?
"Well, that was it. But I won't stop. I won't give up. Because when I look at what is happening in the world, I know that now, more than ever, ...we need to be all that we can be. Now, more than ever, ...we need the Jedi."
Lol Psychology. Are you trying to understand why you live with your mom?
Mist, I chose IT because people will always, ALWAYS want someone to figure out how to get their game to work. My job is futureproof.
All human jobs will migrate to luxury products. Literally, things made by humans will be a luxury by default. Politics & Entertainment(Art) is the last thing we'll be able to hold onto, and they'll still be unrecognizably hybridized by automation. I think we're actually going to get a LOT more art in this automation encroaching age as people still seek to remain a valuable part of society, but much of it will be assisted by algorithms which control color schemes or physics for you.
I call bullshit on "you can't have a painting economy". The economy is literally made up of those participating in it. When there is NOTHING else, the economy will be entertainment. There isn't going to be a majority interest in watching server blades play rock and roll or jazz. You'll go to the bar to have a human pour you a drink and listen to humans play music and talk with humans about your life. This is 100% luxury. Robots could do all of that more efficiently, and perhaps even more beautifully, but when they do everything absurdly efficiently they actually start to become a non-factor in the ongoings of society. Life will go on layered on top of the automated economy and we'll all just become entertainment contributors and consumers by default. The alternatives are doing nothing, being part of a humans do everything sub-group (amish 2.0), and suicide. The majority of people won't pick one of those three options, but amish 2.0 will be the most attractive to the nihilist luxury economy.
I expect there will be a lot of historical re-enactment style of entertainment and adventure/education style getaways where people live primitively as a choice while still not subscribing to the "robots are the debil, we do human stuff" philosophy of the neo amish. MMOs are pretty much the digital vanguard of this kind of period based escapist romanticism. It's going to be big. Matrix big possibly. Some people will just go live in a different reality with the aid of software.
Neuropharmacology will most likely be 'solved' by mechanical minds but drugs are only a small portion of psychotherapy, let alone the entire field of mental health or psychology in general.
I'll most likely end up in a job writing education curriculum or education policy anyway, which is not really what I want to be doing, but seems to be what everyone else thinks I'm good at. Maybe I'll end up as some kind of therapist or counselor later. Getting into, and through, a PHD program for machine learning or computational neuroscience or anything like that is starting to look more daunting than I originally imagined. The programs I want to get into just don't accept that many people.
IMO the problem is going to really be when automation exposes policies like social security for the bullshit pyramid scheme that it is. Society can and will adept, just as it has for hundreds of years as new tech/industries have opened up, its always been the government thats had the trouble adapting to those new realities.
Last edited by Big Phoenix; 02-19-2015 at 10:29 PM.
In the immediate future of the next 15 years or so the jobs that are on the cutting block are cashiers (NFC tags which scan as you enter them in your cart and auto payment), fast food orders (touch screen or voice ordering with screen confirmation) and the like. Maybe things like Johnny cars in 20 years or so ASSUMING driverless cars take off relatively soon.
Things tend to change a lot slower than people think when they are looking at the future.
You could also see a large push to becoming more protectionist of even shitty jobs. Bottom line is that despite advancement there comes a point where you need people to work for $$ and at some point its becomes societies best interest to force that to continue even if it means slower profit growth or no growth. In fact we might hit the point (perhaps closer than we think) where economic stagnation is actually doing "ok".
We've got some shit to work though here now that the big boom cycles are being replaced by anemic growth, debt problems, unemployment, under employment etc. There comes a point where its unlikely society will allow automation to take over if it means we cross into the tipping point of the house of cards to start falling.
Last edited by Kedwyn; 02-19-2015 at 09:54 PM.
It's another reason why I think the idea of sexbots is ridiculous. Robots will replace humans in so many other fields that governments will be forced to legalized prostitution as a safe, legal entertainment profession and many will flock to it and easily outcompete the robots who will never be even close to the real thing.
Dystopia for sure. Some people will always want the power. As natural and renewable resources eventually fail to keep pace with consumption, it will become very ugly. By then I think it will be too late and the masses will end up fighting each other for the scraps they can get rather than taking it out of the 1 - 10%ers.
I hope I'm wrong, but the last 35 years have pretty much shown that we can't seem to look down that road farther than the next fiscal year.
Sex robots remove the human factor which eliminate many of the issues people have with prostitution. If nothing else, this will be huge in the future. You can slap it around, piss on it, make it shit on you, make it whatever age you want and no one gets hurt? Yeah. People will be lining up to fuck these things.
People will have more free time to be entertained, so yeah, entertainment will undoubtedly grow. The sex bot thing might not beat the real thing, but once we figure out neuro/tech merging, like in the matrix, then all bets are off.
But I see the economy being something entirely different in the far future. Capitalism will get us there, but capitalism wont work anymore when everything is so cheap that everyone can have everything. Think Star Trek type shit. I see a true form of communism emerging. What does money matter in a world where everything can be gotten for free? The only thing I see hindering that is the finite natural resources here on earth. But maybe there is a way around that in automated mining bots in space.
As for food, there's tons of very efficient ways of feeding a lot of people that we haven't explored. Bug farming for one. Just reprocess that bug meat into 3d-printed food.
Assuming population stays under 10 billion I'm pretty confident that we'll be able to efficiently meet their energy/food needs indefinitely.
How many assholes love kicking their dogs?
I definitely think sexbots, if they're good enough, can have their place in the market, but demand for the real thing will always be high. Especially if we're talking about the evil shit.
Also never have to worry about pregnancies, catching the aids etc. If anything they can also have the sexbot be controled by a pornstar or something like at the end of this video;
It's far more likely than some kind of holodeck or pleasure suit. It's not just for the sexually demented either regular Joe will gladly visit the perma sub 20 year old as opposed to the crack ho.
Easy to clean, you know it doesn't have disease, likely cheaper, pick the age, fetish etc.. Seriously, dudes that wouldn't consider a prostitute would be lining up
Last edited by Kedwyn; 02-19-2015 at 10:47 PM.
You don't have to worry about a sex bot regretting it and filing rape charges. I see sex bot cleaning services being a very lucrative business.
Show me a machine that can produce the perfect meal for me every day and then I'll agree humans are obsolete. The assumption here being I don't know what I want to eat half the time and I can enjoy something Monday that I wouldn't enjoy prepared the exact same way on Thursday.
MWS Natural "As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving black people approaches 1."
Cooking is a luxury. Nobody will stop others from expertly preparing stuff. Restauraunts will always be around. The chains are the ones who will use this technology. Not sam and dianes seafood shack.
But sure, I have a pretty cynical and pessimistic view of humanity, but that just means I'm never disappointed.
You ask an oncologist for his opinion and he's always going to tell you that it could be cancer.
This is where statistical studies of serious problems (medical, societal, whatever, police officers suffer from the same "everyone is a scumbag" syndrome even if they start as Upright Men) start to become very personally dangerous at least, and perhaps even ineffective/countereffective as applied to individuals if pursued with the improper focus.
It's actually a problem in social work. There's a technical name for it, but I forget what it is offhand.
Mist. Find a boyfriend. Jesus
Girlfriend, you mansplaining shitlord.
I will defend your honor until it no longer amuses me, mi'lady.
It's based on that, but it's a more refined version.
I do remember it has a fancier name. Social work really WILL depress your fucking ass if you aren't constantly mindful of the effect. You'll start thinking that there's no good in the world. It's not a flaw in any way, it's a hazard.
Mist, please get a penis to stretch out your vagina for you. You will get better. The number of cells involved in that action is so huge. You'll feel so much better. Don't be too picky about it, 'just do it' Nike Style. Work your way up to it. Don't expect to log in as a lvl 60 on day one of beta. Just be what you are and get the dick in any way you can in the alpha phase. Just jump baby.
The first step in raising your standards, is the ability to admit that they first needed to be lowered. It is paradoxical and difficult, but it is true.
I am a total shitlord, don't listen to me.
The only reason I would ever be interested in a sex bot would be if I could have non-consensual sex with it.
I don't find sex bots interesting for the same reason I don't find hookers interesting. If they have to be compelled to do it (or they have no choice, because they're a bot) then what does that say about me? Sex is fun not just because of the friction on your genitals but because of the connection you make with the other person and the choice they make to be with you that makes it mentally satisfying. If you have a bot that can 24/7 hoover your cock, I'm sure it'd be fun for a week but it'd get boring.
Do you ever think maybe you're the naive ones?
I have no problem with bots with AI that can choose to sleep with you, if you're attractive/work for it. But if you can go buy a bot that sucks your dick on command, it's like LFR loot. It's completely unsatisfying. You didn't work for it, the bot doesn't care, it's just meh.
Don't get me wrong, I want a real girl. I think the sexbots will actually help people realize the value of their relationship because you can be rather effortlessly replaced with a machine. Sexual blackmail will hopefully be a little less significant as a domestic issue, and you'll be able to cheat with less baggage too. For that matter, spicing up your relationship with a sextoy girl/dude will also be a thing. It's not like couples don't use toys.
You guys are thinking small potatoes with your human female sex bots. The money is in providing things that do not exist. Aliens, dragons, anthropomorphic animals of all species and colors. The cat girl sales to Japan alone will make you a king.
I would use the hell out of a good sexbot. I WOULD TEAR THAT PUSSY UP.
Or maybe I wouldn't, I dunno. Real Dolls legit creep me out. Like fucking legit creeper. If I fucked a real doll i'm pretty sure my next purchase would be a shiny new gun to shoot myself in the face with.
They're hilarious, don't get me wrong. But if I'm stickin my dick in it it's check-out time. That is officially the point where there is nothing left to live for.
VR and sexbots? Pfhhh ... you need to watch:
That shit was virtual reality on steroids. The premise of the movie was brainwave recording tech. When you played back a recording, the person didn't just experience the sensory input of the original experience that had been recorded but also things like emotions and personal memories triggered by that experience in the person who had made the recording. You wanna feel the thrill of a virgin getting to nail a supermodel, it's in there. It was even able to record the death experience of one of the scientists who was working on the project.
Last edited by Royal; 02-20-2015 at 01:36 PM.
We are already tapping into the ability to control things by thought. The matrix showed just how far that technology could go.
There are a lot of changes coming in the future. The questions will be who gets access to these changes.
I figure we are about 50 years out from having the ability to stop aging at our current rate in Humans. If that goes public, a new age of man begins. Our entire society changes at that point.
Before this happens, I imagine tech implants will come out that improve vision and hearing while keeping us connected to the world. Having night vision or satellite vision on command would be nice. Genetic manipulation of embryo's will go through its own process. We do it with pets so it is just a matter of science that really prevents us from doing it with Humans.
Science Fiction tends to make for a descent guide to what is coming. Time and order of discovery are the two elements that effect the outcome.
Oh my god no it doesn't.
The Matrix was a Superman/Christ inspired Savior Story. And then 2 and 3 were inspired by Eastern Mysticism. I liked Matrix 1 a whole lot... it was a great mix of action and Jack Handy philosophy. That movie was dressed up as science fiction, but there was really precious little science in their fiction. And that's fine it was a thoroughly enjoyable movie. But it was only pretending to be science fiction. Which is why, really, I like Dark City more. Dark City is a bit less slick but a bit more forthright in the retelling of that particular story.
And we're not going to stop aging. There is shit in the world that doesn't "age", that's true and somewhat incredible. But the more incredible thing is what a collection of various piles of interlocking shit the physical human actually is.
We'll learn how to transfer our conciousnesses into silicon wafers before we learn how to make our bodies static (and still work). Which is what aging is, and that's all aging is. It is a function of generational, sedimentary change. The myth of physical immortality is a myth. We're not gonna go "OH! Carbon Filament Telomeres! Well, DUH!"
As long as prostitutes are cheaper, sexbots will just be a novelty luxury item.
I mean fleshlights apparently sell. I can see that there would be a business for some femme-bots. But not a take over the world kind of business.
They would lease them in your higher end gentlemans clubs.
On immortality and aging....
If they figure out genes and how to manipulate them, yeah I can see prolonged life. Are they not finding genes that basically control aging? Its like an on/off switch? Sooner they will figure that shit out. How bout replacing our bad shit with mechanical, or even printed organs/tissues? I dont think we can ever become immortal, but shit, ill take an extra 50/100 yrs.
As long as I can get giant robot hands all is well.
I don't think it's that far off, especially with computers to do the hard work. I wouldn't be surprised if there's children alive today that will live to 200.
Not to mention not far off we will be manipulating genes before kids are even born born, making super humans. Its already happening with the designer babies.
That shit is seriously over reported. And bear in mind that science reporting outside of professional journals is pretty dodgy to begin with. We're not going to be pushing the lifespan past 130 for a while. I mean generations. There may be babies born today that live that long. That is probably pretty close to a natural upper boundary, and there's no reason to think we'll suddenly become worse at treating disease and disorder. I'd expect rather large advances in those areas which will account for another steady increase in average and exceptional lifespans.
Honestly it's not that the math is hard when it comes to gene manipulation. It's that things don't work that way. To the combined relief and disappointment of many.
We don't actually have designer babies. We do have at least one with 3 parents... which is bizzare (in humans, other mammals do it. You ever see a really fucked up looking cat... he probably has 2 daddies) and they used it to combat a known double recessive. But that's not a made to spec baby. That's just kind of a neat trick.
There is a very long way to go with stem cell research. And we have to, we MUST truly understand the mechanisms before we tinker with them. And you're talking about mastery over the stem cells of stem cells. Even if you knew exactly what to do and exactly how to do it (which no one does), the only way you can MAKE that baby is in a lab in the first few hours of life. The only way you can GROW that baby is in a uterus.
And you can't just pop it into a syringe and squirt it into her belly. That doesn't work very well either.
Last edited by Iannis; 02-20-2015 at 04:28 PM.
Computers do the hard work? Yes they will help, but we also have to expand our understanding of biochemistry, epigenetcs, and countless protein functions and interactions.
And fuck you Mist, a STEM degree is infinitely more useful than your bullshit one.
I'm just saying, a bunch of cubicle dwelling people who played EQ for a thousands of hours over a decade telling me they know more about human nature is absurd.
Well this cubicle dwelling, mmo playing for hundreds of hours, nerd guy is actually married, with teenage kids, that actually socially interacts with other humans on a regular basis, thats not afraid to be raped every time he steps out the front door, so yeah maybe its not that absurd.
From a sociologist no less! A study of human nature is perhaps the only thing that EverQuest was actually good for.
Granted, a somewhat self-limiting and constricted subset.
Mist, stop shitting up this thread and pretending you're a female. Jefflys already did the "I'm a dude pretending to be a woman and I also have fear of rape" routine.
I work in robotics and automation. Progress is slow in this field and is severely limited by cost. Driverless cars are here, but taxi drivers are cheap. Faux-science journalists and videos like the one in the OP hype up the technological future but the next 30 years are going to be more mundane than you think. Some fields will diminish, others will grow, but it's not going to be some dramatic automation of everything.
Sex bots are already here in various forms, but it's going be a long road up the uncanny valley before we get cheap sex bots you guys are hoping for. And they'll likely be house-servants you can fuck than 'sex bots'.
Also lol @ the idea that because it's possible a technological singularity where AI self-improves all software occurs it's more sound to major in psychology than science.
Want to play the next big MMO with us? check out Black Desert Online
There was an episode on "Curiosity: Can we live forever", with Adam Savage a few years back that dealt with this very topic. Basically, if memory serves me, there is a problem with the brain and how much it can really hold. I seem to recall it was about 200 years worth of data/memories. It only holds so much. Not to mention it starts to shrink quite rapidly past 160 years or so. It was pretty fascinating.
IT and programming are pretty horrible occupations for most of the people working in them. The good jobs are good, and the bad ones are soul crushingly bad.
Study Predicts 9% Drop In Salaries of New CS Grads This Year - Slashdot
Psych is a pretty terrible 4 year degree, but once you get through grad school, your earning potential goes way up. Demand for mental health professionals is at an all-time high and I don't see that changing soon.
Last edited by Mist; 02-20-2015 at 05:40 PM.
None of that is why you said you made the decision.
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