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Thread: Okay bros - Oil Prices & Energy Stocks - time to buy?

  1. #1
    scientia potentia est Cad's Avatar
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    Okay bros - Oil Prices & Energy Stocks - time to buy?

    Oil prices are at 2005 levels excluding the 2009 dip, and energy stocks are similarly depressed. See, e.g. VGELX.

    So I'm thinking its time to buy, since energy/oil prices can't go too much lower without pretty serious international repercussions, as much as I do like $1.89 gas.

    Anybody else think this has serious upside potential in 2015?

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    Creative Title Blazin's Avatar
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    I was thinking same thing this morning. I like the look of some of the energy stocks but taking individual name risk seems dangerous so I'm going to go with VGELX. My debate now is to ease into it over a couple weeks in case we aren't done yet or go ahead and dive in. WTI under pressure again today. I think it's necessary to go into it realizing pay off may not be in 2015, too many unknowns with Europe and China economies for 2015 we may see a year that is relatively flat with the real pay off coming a little further out. Some energy companies are going to go belly up, the small shale/bakken plays that are over leveraged. Despite the run it's had bio may still have more upside in 2015

  3. #3
    pissedcodaemon The Ancient's Avatar
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    Yeah, it's certainly not a bad time to buy if you are a disciplined investor. Which stocks are you looking at? I wouldn't recommend something like DIG.

  4. #4
    scientia potentia est Cad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Ancient View Post
    Yeah, it's certainly not a bad time to buy if you are a disciplined investor. Which stocks are you looking at? I wouldn't recommend something like DIG.
    I was definitely looking at VGELX as opposed to buying individual stocks.

    Right now I'm primarily in VTSAX and VGHAX; this would be new investment not moving those around. Pretty happy with how those did the last few years, not ready to sell them yet. Although I'm not sure how much more VTSAX has this year with the markets already at record highs.

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    I think it's going to get worse during 2015. OPEC wants to kill the shale oil production in America and the only way they can do that is flood the market with oil, with the process making it cheaper than shale production. There is too much oil in America and those taking advantage of it won't die out quickly. Some companies will, but I would say they hang on and ride it out. Maybe at the end of '15 a huge upswing if someone hesitates during this game of chicken.

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    Creative Title Blazin's Avatar
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    Healthcare fund has been a monster last few years just be careful the vanguard fund is no longer as strong of a position in GILD and CELG and they are the real income generators right now. Just watch in 2015 that the fund doesn't start under performing the IBB by any significant margin or maybe take some profits. The other down trodden fund is the precious metals and mining. I would normally just say go after the whole market but sitting at highs and historical fair P/E that isn't too exciting, but both Energy and mining seem to be set up for some gain next few years. Their Euro index is another consideration for overweight.

  7. #7
    pissedcodaemon The Ancient's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rais View Post
    I think it's going to get worse during 2015. OPEC wants to kill the shale oil production in America and the only way they can do that is flood the market with oil, with the process making it cheaper than shale production. There is too much oil in America and those taking advantage of it won't die out quickly. Some companies will, but I would say they hang on and ride it out. Maybe at the end of '15 a huge upswing if someone hesitates during this game of chicken.
    Yeah, well as a rule I wouldn't invest in any equity you can't afford to hold for 2 years.

  8. #8
    Creative Title Blazin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rais View Post
    I think it's going to get worse during 2015. OPEC wants to kill the shale oil production in America and the only way they can do that is flood the market with oil, with the process making it cheaper than shale production. There is too much oil in America and those taking advantage of it won't die out quickly. Some companies will, but I would say they hang on and ride it out. Maybe at the end of '15 a huge upswing if someone hesitates during this game of chicken.
    Definitely could get ugly, when you read how leveraged some of these companies are there is definitely going to be blood in the street. Many were protected for $80 oil not $55. The way financing often works for the producers is that the banks extend them lines of credit based on the value of proven reserves. Periodically these values are recalculated and companies will be faced with what is in essence a massive margin call as the value of their proven reserves has gone to shit, and they lack the cash to meet that call and will have no choice but to dump assets and reduce cap ex. The market will throw out the good with the bad though and I don't think the big boys are under any LT threat (XOM, CVX).

  9. #9
    pissedcodaemon The Ancient's Avatar
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    I like a stock like VLO which wins on Shale or crude right now.
    Last edited by The Ancient; 01-02-2015 at 06:17 PM.

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    Creative Title Blazin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Ancient View Post
    I like a stock like VLO which wins on Shale or crude right now.
    MPC is another good one. I have been swing trading (Which is not investing) Marathon in 2014 but I do think it is a good solid play for the long term. VLO and MPC sold off together at the end of the summer but MPC has been much strong since and I think is in a better strategic position. VLO at 50 is a better value play than MPC at 90+ though, but if MPC drops her panties and shows you the high 70s I think it's a very safe bet to load up on.

  11. #11
    scientia potentia est Cad's Avatar
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    The other one I'm looking at is VITAX. I might split my investment right now between VITAX and VGELX; maybe pull some of my VTSAX out and get it in VITAX. I'm definitely a long-term investor. The mining and precious metals fund scares me because that shit has just been tailing off since like 2010, thats not some political-calamity-driven drop like I see oil being right now. Thats just a long term devaluing. Don't really know what to make of that.

    Basically my picks for 2015 are:
    VGHAX (35%)
    VITAX (20%)
    VGELX (maybe?) (25%)
    And VTSAX (20%) to stay broad.

    Anybody think thats a stupid mix?

  12. #12
    pissedcodaemon The Ancient's Avatar
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    Well I'm not quite sure why you are picking out specific industry funds so much, you'd probably be better served just DCA'ing a broad index fund if you are going to do it like that. I guess if you wanna weigh heavier in Healthcare, Energy and Tech, there are certainly dumber things you could do. I'm not going to bother looking into the breadth of each of those indexes and seeing where on the spectrum you lie so out of hand I'll just say, sure, mix looks good.

  13. #13
    scientia potentia est Cad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Ancient View Post
    Well I'm not quite sure why you are picking out specific industry funds so much, you'd probably be better served just DCA'ing a broad index fund if you are going to do it like that. I guess if you wanna weigh heavier in Healthcare, Energy and Tech, there are certainly dumber things you could do. I'm not going to bother looking into the breadth of each of those indexes and seeing where on the spectrum you lie so out of hand I'll just say, sure, mix looks good.
    Well, my thought was that the broad index is going to include a lot of industries that aren't particularly successful right now; getting the sector specific funds that I think have room to grow means that they can beat the market-wide index. Since I don't know enough about particular companies to pick particular issues, I'd rather do it more broadly by picking sector ETF's with like .1 - .2% expense ratios.

    I could probably plow all my account into VTSAX, leave it for 5 years, and be happy, but just trying to be a little more active without being too active for my knowledge level.

  14. #14
    Coat-hanger Dick Khane's Avatar
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    Not to nitpick but aren't those mutual funds, not ETFs? Not that there is a huge difference, but there are differences.

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    Exploration companies have only scratched the surface of supply in the U.S. The Tuscaloosa Marine shale formation, for example, has barely been explored and looks promising. Costs are also dropping faster than oil prices at an annualized rate. I personally think that there is more downside pressure over the next 2-3 years than upside. I base this on the fact that no OPEC country can cut supply because they're already running budget deficits, and US explorers have already hedged and locked in the next 3 years of production.

    I fully expect $30-40 barrels to be the norm in 2 years.

  16. #16
    scientia potentia est Cad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Khane View Post
    Not to nitpick but aren't those mutual funds, not ETFs? Not that there is a huge difference, but there are differences.
    Yea. I don't really know the difference so I've kinda used the terms interchangeably.

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    Coat-hanger Dick Khane's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cad View Post
    Yea. I don't really know the difference so I've kinda used the terms interchangeably.
    ETF vs mutual fund similarities, differences | Vanguard

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    Coat-hanger Dick Khane's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gadrel View Post
    Exploration companies have only scratched the surface of supply in the U.S. The Tuscaloosa Marine shale formation, for example, has barely been explored and looks promising. Costs are also dropping faster than oil prices at an annualized rate. I base this on the fact that no OPEC country can cut supply because they're already running budget deficits, and US explorers have already hedged and locked in the next 3 years of production.
    Do you have any sources for this

  19. #19
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    Google it, they're there. I'm not going to do your investment research for you.

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    Coat-hanger Dick Khane's Avatar
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    I was more asking where you got your specific information. Telling me to Google it will hit me with a ton of differing opinion. I want to know what you've specifically read that's lead you to believe that. Guess you can't backup your opinion?

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    Game theory dictates that OPEC countries never cut input, they just try to get each other to do so. Now, countries like Venezuela are running enormous deficits that threaten to topple their governments. They can't and won't cut production. The other OPEC countries that are more stable are still running deficits and some, such as the Saudis, have political reasons not to cut production. OPEC can't and won't cut production.

    There are a thousand articles about unexplored shale formations and projected recoverable US supply. Google them. There are a thousand articles reporting that most US explorers and producers have 2-3 years hedged at good prices. There are a thousand articles reporting on how quickly costs have dropped for exploration in the Bakken. Google them you lazy twat.

  22. #22
    The guy with the gun BrutulTM's Avatar
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    I don't think I would bet on the oil prices bouncing right back. I heard an interview with some dude on the radio that said that the Bakken is basically producing oil for less than OPEC can and while some companies are leveraged to the hilt and are in trouble at these prices others will just ride it out and keep producing. My cousin is married to a driller in the Bakken and he said that the drilling has definitely slowed down since the bottom fell out of the market but that just means that it is expanding more slowly, not necessarily that production is going to be cut.

    As usual, when it comes to investing, don't gamble money you can't afford to lose, whether you are playing blackjack in Vegas or trying to time market swings.

  23. #23
    Coat-hanger Dick Khane's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gadrel View Post
    Game theory dictates that OPEC countries never cut input, they just try to get each other to do so. Now, countries like Venezuela are running enormous deficits that threaten to topple their governments. They can't and won't cut production. The other OPEC countries that are more stable are still running deficits and some, such as the Saudis, have political reasons not to cut production. OPEC can't and won't cut production.

    There are a thousand articles about unexplored shale formations and projected recoverable US supply. Google them. There are a thousand articles reporting that most US explorers and producers have 2-3 years hedged at good prices. There are a thousand articles reporting on how quickly costs have dropped for exploration in the Bakken. Google them you lazy twat.
    Get out of the serious threads if you don't want to actually present supporting evidence for your theories and opinions. You want to express an opinion here that people may heed? When questioned as to where you got your information provide evidence. I'm not asking you for song lyrics, I'm asking you to support your opinion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Khane View Post
    Get out of the serious threads if you don't want to actually present supporting evidence for your theories and opinions. You want to express an opinion here that people may heed? When questioned as to where you got your information provide evidence. I'm not asking you for song lyrics, I'm asking you to support your opinion.
    Bro I don't fucking care whether you like my opinion or not. I don't care if you think I should support it. I don't care if you go and buy a shitload of oil futures and lose all your money next year. Do your own damn research.

    Why haven't you asked anyone else in this thread to "support" their opinions? Is it because I'm not saying what you want to hear? Cry me a river.

  25. #25
    Coat-hanger Dick Khane's Avatar
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    I get it, you just want a soap box instead of discussion. I wanted to start a discussion as to the merits of what you were saying. I wanted to see why even though people technically agree with you, you think the prices will drop over a longer period than everyone else seems to.

    Forums are for discussion, not for saying "This is what's gonna happen" and then telling people to Google it when they ask why you think that.

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    Notorious ruse master Picasso's Avatar
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    Yes.

  27. #27
    pissedcodaemon The Ancient's Avatar
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    If you bought on Friday you probably aren't to happy today.

  28. #28
    Creative Title Blazin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Ancient View Post
    If you bought on Friday you probably aren't to happy today.
    Hooray for not buying yet Below $50/barrel that's nuts look at the continued destruction of the drillers like EXXI down another 10% today

  29. #29
    Database Error Vaclav's Avatar
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    Some recent friends in my new area are tied in with oil refining companies here in the US, and they've stated with how much oil is floating in tankers for YEARS at a time currently because of how everything works that they'd be leery until it's under $30/barrel - they wouldn't even be shocked to see $20/barrels, but expect the bottom to be $30ish.

  30. #30
    scientia potentia est Cad's Avatar
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    My money is still safe in the bank (way over FDIC limit for now, but USAA isn't going anywhere), glad I didn't buy Friday.

  31. #31
    scientia potentia est Cad's Avatar
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    God damn it VGELX got hammered today, down almost 5%.

  32. #32
    MEDIOCRE! Big Phoenix's Avatar
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    Just short it bro.

  33. #33
    Creative Title Blazin's Avatar
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    Oil Stock Free fall continues
    Capture.JPGchicken_little.jpg

  34. #34
    Registered User Frenzied Wombat's Avatar
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    Thanks for the tip-- VGELX looks like a good buy and am going to pick some up. An analyst friend at the office thinks it might take further beatings over the next 3-6 months as he thinks oil prices will still head lower, but it looks solid as a long term position.

  35. #35
    Registered User Jysin's Avatar
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    Until Saudi changes their stance, I only see it dropping further.

    While you are correct in saying its a good long term buy, I think it's a safe bet to wait for a further drop in prices.

  36. #36
    Delicious Noodles Noodleface's Avatar
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    I'm at about 37% full of an oil tank in my house, is now the time to buy more oil or should I wait?
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  37. #37
    Creative Title Blazin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noodleface View Post
    I'm at about 37% full of an oil tank in my house, is now the time to buy more oil or should I wait?
    Capture1.JPG

    Just check your prices, it takes awhile for it to work it's way down the chain. Some are still charging $2.60+

  38. #38
    Delicious Noodles Noodleface's Avatar
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    Good idea, I'll have to call them and then write a check - they operate like they're in the 1920's I swear.
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  39. #39
    The guy with the gun BrutulTM's Avatar
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    You have to be careful with that stuff. It's the same with propane here, a lot of people charge based on what they paid for the stuff, not what the current market is and if they stocked up at the wrong time, they may very well attempt to pass their buttraping on to you.

  40. #40
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    There are some great opportunities in both energy and commodity/mining stocks which have been incredibly beaten down. There will be fortunes made in these sectors as the middle class grows around the developing world. I'm looking long term though.

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    I'm planning to park money into dividend paying majors fairly soon here. Oil prices can probably drop further, but I wouldn't bet on them staying at $40-50 for longer then a year. Supply disruption is already occurring it's just ~6 months out because the producers are hedged to the wells they've drilled already.

    Once the oil market shakes out the excess supply in a year or so and prices start rising again, watch out. I wouldn't be surprised to see OPEC slightly cut production in a rising price environment which would result in oil prices correcting to 10-20% over their 2014 highs once this is all said and done. We might be looking at another oil shock come 2016-2017ish if prices remain too low for too long.
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    Notorious ruse master Picasso's Avatar
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    Bronco bomber should be stock piling

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    Quote Originally Posted by Strifen View Post
    I'm planning to park money into dividend paying majors fairly soon here. Oil prices can probably drop further, but I wouldn't bet on them staying at $40-50 for longer then a year. Supply disruption is already occurring it's just ~6 months out because the producers are hedged to the wells they've drilled already.

    Once the oil market shakes out the excess supply in a year or so and prices start rising again, watch out. I wouldn't be surprised to see OPEC slightly cut production in a rising price environment which would result in oil prices correcting to 10-20% over their 2014 highs once this is all said and done. We might be looking at another oil shock come 2016-2017ish if prices remain too low for too long.
    Khane bro ask him for sources quick.

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  45. #45
    Coat-hanger Dick Khane's Avatar
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    Hey look at that. He's a contributing member to this forum. Thanks for asking him for me Gadrel

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    Delicious Noodles Noodleface's Avatar
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    Called yesterday, place is still selling home heating oil at $2.60, no thanks boss
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    scientia potentia est Cad's Avatar
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    Oil up a little today, was that the bottom? Will I let my money ride? I'm anxious about it.

  48. #48
    Creative Title Blazin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cad View Post
    Oil up a little today, was that the bottom? Will I let my money ride? I'm anxious about it.
    Kind of a weird day, overall market up, oil up, but the oil sector is not. CVX, MPC are slightly red. small producers are down around 1%

  49. #49
    pissedcodaemon The Ancient's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cad View Post
    Oil up a little today, was that the bottom? Will I let my money ride? I'm anxious about it.
    What you are doing right now is not called investing.

  50. #50
    scientia potentia est Cad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Ancient View Post
    What you are doing right now is not called investing.

  51. #51
    Notorious ruse master Picasso's Avatar
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    I rolled my magic 8 ball across the quotes page of the newspaper and it landed on VGELX and "make it so"

  52. #52
    Registered User Frenzied Wombat's Avatar
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    How is anybody buying VGELX? I tried to buy some and it says it's only available to institutional customers.

  53. #53
    pissedcodaemon The Ancient's Avatar
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    Not every brokerage offers every fund.

    Nevermind, it's an ETF, not sure what your problem is.

  54. #54
    Registered User Frenzied Wombat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Ancient View Post
    Not every brokerage offers every fund.

    Nevermind, it's an ETF, not sure what your problem is.
    No, it's a mutual fund with 2,500 minimum investment. It's an open ended retail fund so no idea why it's restricted.
    Last edited by Frenzied Wombat; 01-07-2015 at 07:38 PM.

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    Notorious ruse master Picasso's Avatar
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    Hey guys,

    My post was a joke.

  56. #56
    pissedcodaemon The Ancient's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frenzied Wombat View Post
    No, it's a mutual fund.
    Oh well there you go. Your brokerage might not list all the Vanguard funds.

    Quote Originally Posted by Picasso View Post
    Hey guys,

    My post was a joke.
    Fuck! I already invested my life savings because you told me that 8-ball was MAGIC!

  57. #57
    Registered User Frenzied Wombat's Avatar
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    It's listed on Schwab, and allows me to enter the symbol, enter share quantity, etc-- just barfs at the commit stage with "available to institutional customers only". I'll hunt for a roughly equivalent ETF symbol..

  58. #58
    Creative Title Blazin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frenzied Wombat View Post
    No, it's a mutual fund with 2,500 minimum investment. It's an open ended retail fund so no idea why it's restricted.
    VGELX is the admiral shares $50,000 min You want VGENX. The ETF if you want to be able to trade it intra day is VDE.

    We were just showing how big our dicks are earlier by using the VGELX ticker
    Last edited by Blazin; 01-07-2015 at 07:48 PM.

  59. #59
    scientia potentia est Cad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blazin View Post
    VGELX is the admiral shares $50,000 min You want VGENX. The ETF if you want to be able to trade it intra day is VDE.

    We were just showing how big our dicks are earlier by using the VGELX ticker
    .........................//)
    ......................,/..//
    ...................../..../ /
    .............//'...'/`
    ........../'/.../..../......./\
    ........('(...(........,~/'...')
    .........\.................\/..../
    ..........''...\.......... _.
    ............\..............(
    ..............\.............\

    Thanks Adam12
    Last edited by Cad; 01-07-2015 at 11:01 PM.

  60. #60
    Registered User Frenzied Wombat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blazin View Post
    VGELX is the admiral shares $50,000 min You want VGENX. The ETF if you want to be able to trade it intra day is VDE.

    We were just showing how big our dicks are earlier by using the VGELX ticker
    Thanks man. VDE it is, +1

  61. #61
    Creative Title Blazin's Avatar
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    cad you should edit out your account #s

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    Log In - The New York Times

    "The national rig count had remained surprisingly resilient over recent months even as oil prices dropped by more than 50 percent since June, and it still tops the count of a year ago as domestic production continues to surge.

    But an announcement on Wednesday by Helmerich & Payne, the giant contract rig company, that it planned to idle up to 50 rigs over the next month sent shudders through the industry. And that came on top of 11 rigs that it has already mothballed, meaning that in just a few weeks, its shale drilling activity will be reduced by about 20 percent."

  63. #63
    Registered User Springbok's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cad View Post
    Oil prices are at 2005 levels excluding the 2009 dip, and energy stocks are similarly depressed. See, e.g. VGELX.

    So I'm thinking its time to buy, since energy/oil prices can't go too much lower without pretty serious international repercussions, as much as I do like $1.89 gas.

    Anybody else think this has serious upside potential in 2015?
    Now is not the time to buy E&P's. I would go all in on refinery stocks though (Marathon, P66, Valero, CVR etc). I'd also seriously consider staying away from most midstream company stocks as well. Projections of $50 oil throughout the year and hedges running off at the end of this year means we'd need to see a dramatic change in price before then to move the market. OPEC meeting in June will go a long way in determining how it plays out but as of now they don't appear to be flinching.

    I'm hoping the depressed prices cause someone to come buy me out - I'm ready to sell my production and get back into royalties/minerals.

  64. #64
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    Prices will probably remain low for the rest of 2015. Hedges will keep companies from dropping production TOO fast. Money already invested will continue to keep US production steady. OPEC finally realized they can't drive up prices by cutting production, because the US and Russia can make up the difference. No one knows how low it will go with all the negative pressure currently, but it IS unsustainable under $50.

    From a play standpoint, the Eagle Ford and Bakken are the best (lowest cost per barrel) shale plays. Avoid like the plague any company in other "up and coming" plays like the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale. We've known about it for years, but its in early stages and well costs are waaaaaay above EF and Bakken. Would also avoid companies with large positions in Mississippi Lime. Your best bet are companies with strong base production that can net a positive cash flow while prices are down so low.

  65. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tirant View Post
    Prices will probably remain low for the rest of 2015. Hedges will keep companies from dropping production TOO fast. Money already invested will continue to keep US production steady. OPEC finally realized they can't drive up prices by cutting production, because the US and Russia can make up the difference. No one knows how low it will go with all the negative pressure currently, but it IS unsustainable under $50.

    From a play standpoint, the Eagle Ford and Bakken are the best (lowest cost per barrel) shale plays. Avoid like the plague any company in other "up and coming" plays like the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale. We've known about it for years, but its in early stages and well costs are waaaaaay above EF and Bakken. Would also avoid companies with large positions in Mississippi Lime. Your best bet are companies with strong base production that can net a positive cash flow while prices are down so low.
    Khane is gonna need some sources on this bro. You know, for discussion.

  66. #66

  67. #67
    Notorious ruse master Picasso's Avatar
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    Hey look, you managed to shut the fuck up about khane

  68. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Picasso View Post
    Hey look, you managed to shut the fuck up about khane
    Do you have any sources for this assertion? You can't just come in here and spout off at the mouth, this is our thread scrub.

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    Who the fuck knows. It's up to some dumpfuck sand munching arabas. Who have the temperament of an amphetamine fueled 2007 Britney Spears mixed with the savvy of a well done mutton chop. $20bb wouldn't surprise me.

    They can keep it up for years if they want. Which probably isn't a bad plan, given that they might as well get it all out of the ground for something rather than wait 20 years and have to deal with real competition and a product that is worth orders of magnitude less.

  70. #70
    Registered User Lyrical's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tirant View Post
    OPEC finally realized they can't drive up prices by cutting production, because the US and Russia can make up the difference. No one knows how low it will go with all the negative pressure currently, but it IS unsustainable under $50.
    Where is the extra oil production coming from in the US and Russia? Shale? Anyway, I was reading that companies are buying their way out of drill contracts, as that is cheaper than to start drilling right now.

    I don't think I'd touch oil for the next six months.

  71. #71
    Registered User Lyrical's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gadrel View Post
    Actually, this article answered all of my questions, and then some.

  72. #72
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    Lyrical, are you passing your gas savings on to your customers?

  73. #73
    Registered User Kedwyn's Avatar
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    We have two producing leases that were capped. They still are paying land use rights but production is gone now until things improve price wise.

    I don't see the strategy of artificially lowering price to ween out the shale / frack oil working. The oil will still be in the ground, regardless if the company that owns the rights or not survives the oil will be there and the rights will get passed on to another company at auction or they will sit on the rights until prices improve. I just don't see it as a viable way to limit competition if that is what they are trying to do. Once prices break past a certain point production will ramp right up again.

    Now if the intent of this is to fuck over certain Eastern European powers that would make a little more sense.

    Either way, I wouldn't bet any money on the oil marketplace anytime soon.

  74. #74
    Registered User Lyrical's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gadrel View Post
    Lyrical, are you passing your gas savings on to your customers?
    No, because I only was able to charge for half the increase in gas prices over the last few years. I'm already at the high end of the spectrum because of having real equipment, higher skilled labor than the competitors, and full insurance, so I couldn't increase much further. The net effect is that monthly margins have been decreased by $3k a month for the last few years.

  75. #75
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    Interesting, thanks for the detailed response.

  76. #76
    Registered User Borzak's Avatar
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    They are moving the drillers from here out of the shale oil further west back into areas they can drill for natural gas. I don' tknow what the long term outlook is really. Members of OPEC have stated they want to drive out the frackers, that's going to take more than a few months. They will have massive lay offs first but still just as rapidly could get back into it is short term.

    For December even OPEC outpaced their stated goal, so more oil.

  77. #77
    Registered User Borzak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedwyn View Post
    We have two producing leases that were capped. They still are paying land use rights but production is gone now until things improve price wise.

    I don't see the strategy of artificially lowering price to ween out the shale / frack oil working. The oil will still be in the ground, regardless if the company that owns the rights or not survives the oil will be there and the rights will get passed on to another company at auction or they will sit on the rights until prices improve. I just don't see it as a viable way to limit competition if that is what they are trying to do. Once prices break past a certain point production will ramp right up again.

    Now if the intent of this is to fuck over certain Eastern European powers that would make a little more sense.

    Either way, I wouldn't bet any money on the oil marketplace anytime soon.

    Same here. I have leased rights in two states, the leases run for 3 years and they have been renewing. But when they aren't producing you don't get that share of production which is 25% for my leases. So you get a lease payment at the start of the 3 years and 25% production and rights of first refusal.

  78. #78
    Registered User Rod-138's Avatar
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    Just bought around 30k worth of Marathon and Conoco Phillips ! Someone sacrifice a tree to the oil gods for me please.

  79. #79
    Coat-hanger Dick Khane's Avatar
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    So I've been toying around with the idea of credit card "flipping" to invest an exorbitant amount of other people's money into energy/oil stocks for my own personal gain. I'm pretty much Donald Trump right now.

  80. #80
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    You are fucking retarded.

  81. #81
    Coat-hanger Dick Khane's Avatar
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    Boy and boy talk about jumping to conclusions. You have no idea what I'm even talking about.

  82. #82
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    Who are you calling boy, mongoloid?

  83. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rod-138 View Post
    Just bought around 30k worth of Marathon and Conoco Phillips ! Someone sacrifice a tree to the oil gods for me please.
    Oh man, hogs get slaughtered.

  84. #84
    Registered User Harfle's Avatar
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    those ever increasing gas prices...

  85. #85
    Registered User Borzak's Avatar
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    I don't know about the oil producing side but on the refining side they are taking the opportunity to run extended downtime for their spring turn around. Normally they have a spring and fall turnaround for maintenance where they shut down a number of process lines. These are normally planned a year or more in advance.

    This year because of the stockpiling of refined fuels and other market conditions they took the opportunity to extend them and do larger maintenance on very short notice. The 2nd largest refinery in the country has a cat cracker shut down with the top off of it (which is the heart of a refinery which actually cracks the hydrocarbon chains) on short notice. What normally is a few weeks is going into the 3rd month of a large portion of the refinery being shut down.

    I would imagine at some point that is going to impact the prices.

  86. #86
    Registered User BoldW's Avatar
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    Haven't oil exploration, equipment, and infrastructure companies been outperforming the rest of the energy sector for pretty much all of recent memory?

    Khane, did you actually do the credit-card flipping to invest? The difference between you and Trump is that when he uses other people's money he isn't personally obliged to pay back losses. OPM =! IOU

  87. #87
    Registered User Frenzied Wombat's Avatar
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    probably a good time to short oil. With the Iran "deal" in place, they will soon be able to unload a huge amount of reserves they've been stockpiling.

  88. #88
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    So all this talk about the "storage tanks filling up" and a price crash down to $30 turned out to be a bunch of hot air. I bet ya when Goldman Sachs was telling everyone to sell sell at $40 oil cause storage was about to hit capacity they were backing up the trucks and buying the quality producers for the next run to $100 in a couple years time. Usually how these things work.

  89. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strifen View Post
    So all this talk about the "storage tanks filling up" and a price crash down to $30 turned out to be a bunch of hot air. I bet ya when Goldman Sachs was telling everyone to sell sell at $40 oil cause storage was about to hit capacity they were backing up the trucks and buying the quality producers for the next run to $100 in a couple years time. Usually how these things work.
    Unfortunately true

    Oil's trouble aren't over yet but whatever problems come from countries unloading excess supply the market will eventually correct.

  90. #90
    Notorious ruse master Picasso's Avatar
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    The cure for cheap energy is cheap energy

  91. #91
    scientia potentia est Cad's Avatar
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    Putting my money where my mouth is, I bought $150k of VGELX today. Buy price should be 89.54. COME ON YOU FUCKERS DRILL !

  92. #92
    Mister Manager Eyashusa's Avatar
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    If I had that kind of cash and chose that MF, I'd be more inclined to go in $50,000 at a time, or less depending what vanguard rules are for it, especially of you think oil/energy still has a ways to go.

    then again that's basically trying to time the market but whatever, just a thought.
    One day I hope to be as attractive and well spoken as Tuco!

  93. #93
    Registered User Kedwyn's Avatar
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    nm
    Last edited by Kedwyn; 08-08-2015 at 02:42 AM.

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    TSO was my long pick ~2 years ago and has done well. Now I picked up some XOP at 37.20. I cheer when gas prices go up =p.

  95. #95
    scientia potentia est Cad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eyashusa View Post
    If I had that kind of cash and chose that MF, I'd be more inclined to go in $50,000 at a time, or less depending what vanguard rules are for it, especially of you think oil/energy still has a ways to go.

    then again that's basically trying to time the market but whatever, just a thought.
    Yea I'll hold this for a few years so I don't want to try to time the market. I'm just looking and it's at its lowest point in 5 years. It might go down more... might not. Guess we'll see. I could just plow more into VGHAX which has been paying like crazy for years, but just trying to spread it around.

  96. #96
    Notorious ruse master Picasso's Avatar
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    Oh boy another extinction level event we'll forget about in a month.

  97. #97
    scientia potentia est Cad's Avatar
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    Whats a few trillion in losses among friends

  98. #98
    Megistered Jooserockey Eomer's Avatar
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    heh, logged in to my brokerage account prior to checking any news this morning. I was like "I'm pretty sure that my total account value started with a different digit last week." Looks like things have bounced back up again, though.

  99. #99
    Coat-hanger Dick Khane's Avatar
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    Automated sell positions? Still, the DJIA has dropped almost 2k points since June.

  100. #100
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    For personal reasons I also monitor the USD:Yen conversion rates and it was strange today. As of late it trades around 1:122. Sometimes spiking to 1:125. This morning it was 1:118. Now it is back up to 1:119.

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