Picking keepers. Keeping P. Manning as QB and looking at two of the following three:
C.J. Spiller, Arian Foster, Dez Bryant.
Leaning towards Foster/Bryant. Very standard type of traditional scoring league.
Last edited by Famm; 07-20-2013 at 10:38 PM.
Adrian Peterson will suck money balls this year.
First GIS for 'suck money [sic] balls'
Anyway, my advice is to pick as many Chiefs players as possible. Good luck!
What the fuck do you mean keepers? You are in a keeper league and somehow those players are available? Also why the fuck would you "keeper" Payton he has maybe 3 years left at best. Also Dez Bryant is a glass cannon bitch, Arian Foster will be good for 5-6 probably, CJ spiller would be the best of those but they aren't really valued the same now.
I get to choose three players from last season's team to keep for this year. Everyone else does the same and the draft is made up of whoever is left over after everyone selects their three keepers. Manning is easily the best option I have at QB, and for this year at least he should post similar or better numbers especially if Welker is productive. As you can imagine, everyone with an elite level QB is going to keep them, so its a lot harder to replace Manning no matter where my first pick is than it is to pick up a RB or WR.
Do you really not get how keeper leagues work? Your post made no sense. They are available for me to keep because I had them last year. I don't give a fuck how many years they have left, I only care about this season. I'll pick up players in the draft and through the year who are young with potential high ceilings and then decide who to keep and drop again next year at this time.
I'm back and forth between Spiller and Bryant. Think I would go Bryant personally
I'd keep Spiller...in a normal draft, him, Foster, and Manning are going in the first round this year and Bryant is going in the 2nd or 3rd.
Ok, after looking...maybe Spiller would fall to the 2nd in a 12 team league, but I still see him going much earlier than Bryant.
With such a pass happy league and Bryant having an awesome second half last year, no drama this off season? if he remains focused he could be the best WR this year easily.
I'm in a 3 player keeper (not required to keep 3 if you do not want to) 12 team league, with snake drafting rules. We can trade for draft picks. I'm trying to choose between Cruz or Cobb as the final keeper selection. If I were to try to trade away who I do not keep, what kind of draft pick value should I aim for in trading away the either of them?
Last edited by Muurloen; 07-21-2013 at 06:30 PM.
Find it hard to want to keep anyone on the Packers, outside of Mr Rodgers. They move the ball around so much Cobb will make points but inconstantly.
Last edited by Famm; 07-21-2013 at 09:30 PM.
What exactly do the Bills have as a weapon outside of spiller?
Uh, you don't just shut down a feature back the same way as you double team a WR? He's going to get a ton of carries. WR is always easier to plug in on the fly and have success than RB/QB. What weapons do the Vikes have? Yet would you rather have AP or a top WR? Maybe Calvin Johnson, but that's it. Spiller will get a ton of carries and get some check down receptions and he doesn't have a very strong handcuff or goal line vulture situation. I'm actually more concerned about Foster/Tate in that regard. Plus the Bill's strength of schedule versus run defenses isn't that bad.
Spiller matched up with AP in YPC last season and they have a miserable QB situation so they will need to lean on the running game to protect whoever starts.
Last edited by Famm; 07-22-2013 at 12:10 AM.
I love it when people in my league forget people on shitty teams score fantasy points too.
I'm pretty sure I made it to the championship in one of the FoH leagues after I picked up Spiller. Originally had Jackson but when he got hurt (as he does every year), Spiller went fucking off.
Yeah, the Jets were pretty terrible, but Shone Green still was the 19th ranked RB overall last season (at least in PPR) which would be good enough to be a #2 RB in a 10+ team league.
So I am putting together my personal draft rankings and I am having a hard time figuring out where to put Brady. What effect do you think his WR turn-over on his fantasy production and do you think his draft stock may drop because of it?
None.. Brady is still a top QB. Expect similar production as last year. It's not the first time he's had turnover with his WRs
I expect it to drop. Not off a cliff, but still drop some. What probably won't drop is people's perception of him. So he's still going to go in the first 3-4 rounds, depending on your scoring system. FF is about minimizing risk and getting probability on your side. To me, Brady is too much of a risk warrant spending a pick that high. I'd rather grab a RB or stud WR and use Ryan/RG3/Romo/Luck.
I think the big question is where you value Wilson/RG3/Kaep. With the running aspect they can be fantasy monsters at the QB position but any of them could have had a flash in the pan season, and there's the injury concerns. Depending how much you believe in drafting them makes a difference between Brady being a top five or just a top ten fantasy QB. He's still a very solid pick, I'd expect that he's going to continue to provide great fantasy numbers as always no matter who is catching the ball. Its the rest of his team that are essentially worthless as high picks until we see who has breakout years.
Yeah, I was kind of hoping he might drop into sleeper territory (relatively speaking) but I have a feeling his name alone will keep his draft stock high. Looking over my research so far, I have pretty much decided that I have to go RB/RB this year unless something really whacky happens in my draft. Even with PPR I just don't see 20 viable fantasy starters at RB this year. Too many question marks, injury risks and time-shares.
I'm not worried about WR that much, think WR is deep this year (especially in PPR which helps balance out TD's). I'm really worried about finding value and QB and I don't know who the fuck to pick at TE if Ghraham goes early.
Vernon Davis should have his best year this year. They will need him a lot with no Crabtree and a young QB.
I'm worried about Kaep's WR situation so I'm not willing to go with him as my QB this year.
RG3 is tough because you just aren't going to know his status until near the beginning of the season. I'm personally staying away from him because I plan on only carrying one QB this year until the bye-weeks and unless his status 100% certain, I can't risk going into week 1 with him as my starter.
Well then Brady is solidly top five for you IMO. I think you can count on him to start all 16 too, I don't see that as a given for RG3, there's going to be moments when Cousins steals snaps starting or not. Now where do you rank him next to Manning, Rodgers, Brees?
Last edited by Famm; 07-23-2013 at 06:24 PM.
For me it's Rodgers, Brees, Manning Brady.
No doubt. Davis is going to be a good grab this year. I would also keep an eye on Owen Daniels.
My concern with Vernon Davis is the fact they lost Delanie Walker. He forced defenses to stay honest, that combined with Crabtree going down, VD is going to be easier to game-plan against. That said, I expect the Niners to get more creative in finding ways to get VD the ball (lining him up in the slot sometimes, etc.) and he will probably be under-valued based on how little he got the ball aside from the Chicago game once Kaep took over.
I'd say Brees, then probably Brady. Toss up with Manning and Rodgers, I like Manning with Welker though.
Keep Gronk ya guys think?
Depends on how your keeper league works (if you have to give up a draft pick to keep him, it would depend on which draft pick) but after Gronk and Graham there is a pretty big drop off on TE fantasy production. So I would say yes, keep him. Just know you are going to have to carry a second TE pretty much all season so you will be a little thin at either RB or WR.
Kinda what I figured.
I've got #2 in a standard 12 man league. AP is going first. We live in MN no one would do any different. Is Foster the obvious choice? Any of you dudes got a compelling reason to go with someone else?
Last edited by Famm; 07-26-2013 at 06:29 PM.
I would go RB for sure (of course, I've already advocated returning to RB/RB for your first two picks this year). You could also consider Ray Rice or Marshawn Lynch, if you want to get really cute can throw Doug Martin and Alferd Morris into the mix. But if it were me I would go just go Foster.
Jamal Charles and Trent Richardson are getting some pretty high initial fantasy rankings too. Both of them figure to see a lot of action under their new coaches and neither are facing terribly stiff run competition on the schedule. Of course defenses can improve, I sure expect Baltimore's run D to as they couldn't fall much farther. But Richardson should be a total workhorse. I'm keeping Foster as I said but I think the concerns over injury/mileage and Tate are significant.
I don't like Charles' "Boom-or-Bust" scoring consistency. I'll take the guy who scores 20 points week-in-week-out over the guy who might go off for 40, or might be held to 5. Foster is equal to Peterson atop most scoring consistency matrixes.
It is a little tough to evaluate that with a new coach coming in. I will say that I liking Charles in PPR, but not with Foster/Rice/Lynch on the board.
Last edited by opiate82; 07-26-2013 at 08:36 PM.
CJ Spiller is gonna be a stud this year. Don't know if I would take him over Foster, but he's gonna piss off a lot of people.
Does Lynch have anyone stealing significant carries? I'm predicting right now that Ray Rice owners will learn to hate Bernard Pierce.
I'm half convinced that Spiller will bust just because I'm keeping him. I think I'll be picking like third from last, I'm hoping Dez might possibly just drop back to me in that league or another good WR value.
Only two things to be concerned with Lynch about. First is that he has had back trouble (spasms) in the past, nothing that kept him out of any games last year, but something to keep an eye on. The other is he could get vultured by Russell Wilson if the read-option is wide open for him. But even last year the two games that Wilson really went off with the read-option (Chicago and Buffalo) Lynch still got TD's in each of those games.
10 team ppr league. Everyone must keep one. My rbs were bust. I am currently debating keeping either Jimmy Graham or Cam Newton... I have 10th pick in snake order, so im definitely getting best available RBs back to back my first 2 picks... If I keep graham, then I would feel pressured to take a QB in the 3rd or 4th round... If I keep Cam, then there's no pressure to take a QB early, and I wouldn't even worry about taking a TE until late, and maybe scoop a break out player off waivers and play match ups week to week... Thoughts?
Looks like Maclin blew out his knee. FYI for drafting.
Some interesting Vernon Davis analysis from Sando over at ESPN:
I generally stay away from "homer" picks but if the price is right...We should expect Davis' receiving stats to swell this season in the absence of injured primary receiver Michael Crabtree. Davis appeared to be gaining momentum as a receiver last season before Crabtree was injured. Davis had six catches for 104 yards in the Super Bowl. He had five catches for 106 yards in the NFC title game. Crabtree also had 11 receptions over those two games, but Davis had a 210-166 advantage in yardage.
Yeah, like I said, seemed like just some downtime before Kaepernick started using him as a go to guy. I really think he's the sleeper for high TE selections.
At the rate ACL's are getting blown out this pre-season, I'm wondering if there will be any players left come draft day.
I figured I'd look it up to see who did this time, and I'm coming up with too many. Was there one in particular that brought that comment about opiate?
Nah, not a player in particular. I was just on ESPN's website and I think like 1/2 the headlines were about players who torn ACL's and were done for the year.
As far as fantasy is concerned, I think these injuries are changing the landscape of WR this year. Not only do we already have several #1's done for the year, but looking through the injury reports there are a lot of guys who have question-mark type injuries (e.g. will Jordy Nelson be 100% to start the season). I thought WR was deep this year but injuries are taking their toll.
Also, with so many WR going down, there are going to be some no-name guys who step up in a big way. Being able to identify those guys either late in the draft or as early season waiver-wire pick ups are going to go a long ways to helping someone win a title.
Not sure which round I would put him in but Tavon Austin is someone to look at getting. Rams have the pieces to play some good ball this year.
If they declare Gronk fit to start the season before my keeper deadline, do I keep Gronk over Cruz, and sell Cruz to the highest bidder in my up coming draft?
But the Bills' QB situation is worse than the Jets' right now, and that's a scary proposition for any offense. New-everything over there. Fitzpatrick could at least manage a game (until the 4th at least)... neither Manuel or Kolb have really done that at an NFL level, and Kolb just got attacked by a floor mat.
I know they say they want to give Spiller the ball "until he throws up", but I definitely worry about shit-QB syndrome and overuse/injury.
Last edited by ValkyrieIATD; 08-08-2013 at 04:09 PM.
Ok so injury concerns around Foster have dropped him from the #2 slot. Who do you guys take now in the Martin/Charles/Spiller/Lynch/Morris group? I really hate taking RBs on bad teams and Martin concerns me simply because such a big % of his points came from that one monster game last year. I'd almost like to take Lynch there but I don't think many people would agree with me.
I'm all in on Spiller being the safest bet of the guys you named, everyone else has some question marks. I don't trust the Bucs system and like you said it could be a fluke. KC we don't know for certain if Reid's system will come out firing on all cylinders and I don't fully trust Charles health wise. Lynch is getting older though still in prime years, we can't say for sure how the offense will look in terms of who gets touches but I'm sure he will be the workhorse again, however he also could get suspended if this DUI thing plays out badly. I'd worry about Morris getting vultured at the goal line and in touches too much to take him that high, but he's a solid pick in the second round if he falls.
Have you considered Trent Richardson? They are going to run his ass into the ground. And you could always buck the trend and go with Calvin Johnson. After having drafted this weekend for the first time this year I really agree that WR is incredibly deep, plus some solid TE options floating around if you have flex/TE slots to use. With 12 teams the RB's are going to disappear a lot faster so I'd probably stick with that especially if you are doing a snake since your next pick is going to be a long wait.
I ended up having Dez fall back to me for my first pick in my keeper league since everyone else was grabbing backs as I suspected. So I'm not as worried about using a keeper on Foster now, but I was all ready to grab Tate for insurance later in the draft when someone swiped him a couple picks ahead of me. I think that's a big part of being a Foster owner this year. Tate would step in and produce almost as well and the system and team down there is as run friendly as any team in the league.
Last edited by Famm; 08-19-2013 at 08:31 PM.
Lynch's DUI issue won't come into play this season. His hearing has been pushed back till I think the end of December now and the league won't act until after that. If you aren't taking Peterson/Foster, Lynch would be up next on my board, although I wouldn't fault anyone for leaning Spiller instead. I just like Lynch's track-record more and Seattle is going to be a run first and run often team.
I also like Morris because I think RG3 is going to have marching orders to hand the ball off more often and to keep it himself less. You know Shanahan is going to run the ball and when he settles on a feature RB they generally are fantasy gold. With that said I would still look at Lynch and Spiller first. Charles might also be a good call in PPR but he is to streaky for my tastes. Martin, I dunno, he is a first-rounder, but not a top 3 pick.
In my league, which is more WR and QB driven (only 1 RB slot, no flex) it looks like Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeMarco Murray and Reggie Bush will fall to me. I suspect my 1st RB pick will be the 13th RB taken overall, because of the guy that owns Foster will be looking to hedge that injury. Out of that set of names, who would you take for just solid production, but could have a higher ceiling? I'm kinda thinking RDMC, but would like some other opinions.
On a side note I am looking to take Eddie Lacy a little early to hedge these older/injury prone RB choices.
Last edited by Muurloen; 08-20-2013 at 12:03 PM.
I doubt Steven Jackson lasts until 13. If he does, I would lean towards him. My own personal ranking of the ones you listed: Jackson, Johnson, Gore, MDJ, Bush, Murray, McFadden. If it's PPR, I would slot Bush higher than MDJ and maybe Gore.
I have the 3rd pick in a 14 team ppr draft. 6 points for passing td's and bonus points for long touchdowns for all positions. In our league Qb's go fast and early. Just to give you an idea, Brees was the highest scorer in our league last year and Rodgers the year before that. Brees scored over 240 more points then Eli Manning last year using our scoring system. He scored over 100 points more then Peterson last year. In our league the top 5 Qb's go in the first or second rounds. Most good Qb's are gone by the 4th.
Ok all that said, I was planning on going rb, rb for the first time in 4 years. I was in the championship game the last 2 years picking a qb first so I am scared to death of this strategy. Qb is so deep this year I feel I can wait till the 4th round.
I need to know which Rb's are the best to target in the first 2 rounds. I have the 3rd and 26th picks. I was leaning towards Spiller and Wilson as both of these guys are falling to me in my mock drafts. Trust me I know at number 3 I have a choice of everyone except for AP as I expect one person in front of me to choose a qb. I think spiller has more upside then any other Rb including Foster, Martin, Lynch etc.... its the second pick that's tough.
Whats your favorite rb outside the top ten?
For PPR I would look at Sproles and Bush. Also Morris and Jackson *might* fall to you based on the description of your league. Also, I hate to go there but I have a good feeling about Chris Johnson this year. He isn't going to be back to CJ2K form, but I bet he'll be a steal in most drafts.
I took Brees last year with the same pick, I was happy because he was the highest point scorer in the whole league. However none of my sleeper rb's worked out last year and I was carried by my wr's and a lot of good luck. Brees was money because he won me a few weeks by himself.
The year before I took Rodgers first and won my league. Problem this year is I am in a good spot to get 2 good rb's AND a good quarterback. You can take a good qb in the 3rd since you are right a the beginning or wait and nab luck or Wilson later on in the 5th.
I tried to make other posters on a few boards understand the power of an elite Qb in a large league. They just do not understand. I do not want to be one of the first to take a qb this year even though I was in the championship game the last two years.
I try to stay ahead of the curve and I think I can win changing up my strategy this year and going more traditional.
Yeah, really to know what a good draft strategy is for your league we'd probably need to see all the actual scoring rules. And info like what was the difference in points between the 1st ranked QB vs the 14th ranked QB and the point difference between the 1st, 14th and 28th ranked RBs.
The reason RB/RB works with standard scoring is because the difference between the 1st ranked and 10th ranked QB's isn't nearly as great as the 1st RB and the 10th and 20th RBs. With some wonky scoring rules that could easily change the dynamic making a top QB a priority. Tough to say w/o digging into your league rules.
So I got fucked on RBs this year(12th pick in snake draft) and ended up picking up Forte and Brees 1&2. Every sure bet RB was off the board and CJ. My receiver group is strong, but my backs are pretty terrible(Forte, Lawfirm[looks like Bengals like Gio alot], Kendall Hunter and Blount(who like 5 people have asked me to trade to them).
I did have an offer on Vincent Jackson and Tony Gonzales for MJD, but I don't know if it's worth it to lose top 5 TE production and Top 5 WR production for top 10 RB
Detheb - XtitanX
15 no's and one yes makes it legal
Yeah, I say fuck that, keep an eye out for injury opportunities or handcuffs who could be good to have on the bench. Forte might end up being pretty underrated anyway.
Drafted 12th in a 12 team league. I might be a little weak at WR, but I can usually supplement that position easier through the waiver wire than the other positions. I grabbed a couple high-upside RBs and then took everyone's handcuffs.
I'd say Murray. Murray is awesome until he gets hurt.
Ugh, picking 7th in a 14 team league for work. Normal lineups/scoring... QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Def, K. Depending on which RB's get taken might snag someone like Calvin Johnson but I really don't want to wait on getting RB's with a draft that deep.
Yep pretty much what I'm betting on. That and picking up a lot of 2nd string RB's on solid running teams to ride the bench and hop in if needed.
So, I found out I've got the #1 pick pick for my draft Thursday. In all the years I've played fantasy I've never actually been put at 1. It's a 12 man ppr league with standard lineups and snake draft. I haven't really went and delved into the depth charts yet, but as of right now my plans are not to be cute and get AP at #1 and Graham at #25 in round 3. My issue is with the 24th pick in round 2. Of course it's going to matter how the draft actually plays out, but I'm guessing all the quality rbs will be gone and I'll be forced to take the best available qb/wr. Any thoughts?
I find the top WRs other than Calvin to be not much better than the next tier, so I'd wait on that position. I also only see 4 QBs I'd want that early and they're probably all gone by the time you pick. I'd probably be looking at Wilson/MJD...or even Lacy with that pick. Main thing you need to remember when you draft at one of the end spots is that there are 22 picks between yours, so if there is any player you really want...even if you're on pick 25 and he's going in mocks at 47...you pull the trigger because he's probably not coming back to you.
Yea, after looking into things I definitely won't be making a move on a QB at that point. Probably wait until round 5 or 6 for that and still come out with something salvageable. Think I'm either going to go rb/te or rb/wr depending how the chips fall.
I have 11th pick in a 14 man draft.. Going to be fun. It's going to be hard to not take 2RBs right away but I got to thinking..If a guy like AJ green is there on the way back I might have to go RB/WR and hope something comes back to me. I'm pretty content to pick up a guy like Luck later on so my first 4 picks will prob RBs and WRs unless a great guy falls.
Had my draft last night
"noteable" bench players are vareen and randle
Pretty happy with the results, yahoo's draft ranker placed me at 2nd. Really hoping the Chris Johnson and Kapernick picks work out.
not bad man. I have my 14 man draft wed.. ugh.. I really don't know what to expect by pick 11. Mock drafts mainly keep dropping Forte or Lynch..
On the way back guys like Brandon Marshall, Dez, AJ Green are there along with some quality backs like Morris, MJD, etc.. plus Jimmy Graham tough one lol
There have been times where I went RB 1 and WR 2 and have had guys like David Wilson or Ridley come back to me. Which would be amazing if it played out that way.
Last edited by Convo; 09-01-2013 at 12:50 AM.
Just had our work league 14 team draft, I think I did pretty well. Don't mind Team Green... he knows nothing about sports. Also Doug Martin at 7 gave me a boner. My only real 'reach' might be Fitz in the 3rd, but I wanted a legit #1 WR. It was either that or someone like Sproles as 3rd RB for flex, Jimmy Graham at TE, or a QB. Also, Team Klein auto picked his first two hence the QB/WR at 14/15.
Fitzgerald won't be the bust he was last year. Carson Palmer kind of sucks, but he's still the best QB Fitz has had since Kurt Warner. Tom Brady might have been a better choice in the 3rd round though.
As a Buc fan, Martin is overrated. He had one game where he exploded for over 50 points last year, and another for over 30, but most of the time he was around 10. Especially in a big league, I'd want my number one pick to score 15-20 more reliably week-to-week. Add in CJ, the king of unreliability, and you've got yourself a recipe for disaster a lot of weeks.
I also agree you should have gone Brady in the third. Its a good idea to wait on QBs in a smaller league since there are so many, but in a big league the difference between a Romo and a Brady can be 70-80 points over the course of a season. Just having a top tier QB immediately gives you a guaranteed edge over 2/3rds of your league, and the difference between a Fitz and a 5th round WR isn't really big enough to give that up.
I'm in a custom, non PPR league. I was offered Jordy Nelson straight up for Steve Johnson. I'm leaning heavily to accept it. Jordy is coming off a very bad Hamstring from last season, and about 3-4 weeks ago had a minor knee procedure done. He will be ready for week 1 though.
Jordy is obviously in a far superior offense, has way more upside then S. Johnson IMO. Johnson is a very steady wr though.
Week-to-week, there's essentially no upside for Steve, but Jordy might be a big part of some monster 5 TD game by Rodgers. And he'll still get his passes in normal weeks. Unless you are worried about injury, pull the trigger.
I'd agree with that. Spiller is one thing. Its not like AP is downgraded due to Ponder. But WR is another matter. There's looking to be virtually no serious passing attack in Buffalo but we know how well the ball will move around in GB.
So my league had to redraft from my beastly team because we vetoed a trade and guy bitched up and dropped all his players. 12 Team Standard ESPN scoring I drafted
Someone offered me Steven Jackson and Vincent Jackson for Foster... Foster scares me because if Injury and Houstons passing might not look so hot this year. But Vincent scares me because of Freeman and Steven scares me because of Rodgers and Atlanta's potent ass passing attack(Namely 3 huge redone targets in Gonzalez, White, and Julio) wtf should I do
Detheb - XtitanX
15 no's and one yes makes it legal
Yeah, I'd certainly take that trade.
Atlanta loves to run the ball near the goal which is the reason why Michael Turner was fantasy relevant on that team. Sjax is 10x the runner turner is and Vjax is coming back to the same situation as last year in which he was a top 5 wr. You're getting two top 10 or better guys for someone who while he has been a stud, he also has injury questions. I would do that trade.
Also unless you're in a two QB league, there is 0 reason to carry more than 1 QB unless you're main guy is on a bye. Drop Eli and pick up a RB/WR.
Not even a question. The difference between DeAngelo Williams/James Jones and Vincent Jackson is waaaaay bigger than the difference between Arian Foster and Steven Jackson. He is the Bucs number one option and a huge deep threat that will get weekly catches and scores throughout the year. Freeman may be too inconsistent to take the Bucs to the Super Bowl, but he's never had a truly bad year and he is certainly able to chuck the ball to VJax when he gets open down the field.
should I trade my back up QB andy dalton for roddy white hakeem nicks or randall cobb?
Yeah I went ahead and did it. Was leaning towards it anyway.
Someone just offered Matt Ryan, MJD and Rueban Randall for Tom Brady, Gregg Jennings and DeAngelo Williams. Hopefully our commish doesn't veto it lol
Detheb - XtitanX
15 no's and one yes makes it legal
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