I thought Australia was ancient (oldest landmass) and already prospected.
Haven't seen this mentioned anywhere, or in the news for that matter.
Could be a real game changer for the Middle East, and it's been a long time coming. Some little sleepy town in Southern Australia is estimated to have 233 billion barrels of oil, and perhaps even larger than that some speculate. At 233 billion barrels, that's about 30 billion shy of the estimated oil in Saudi Arabia.
I thought Australia was ancient (oldest landmass) and already prospected.
Smells like someone is scammin'.
"Well, that was it. But I won't stop. I won't give up. Because when I look at what is happening in the world, I know that now, more than ever, ...we need to be all that we can be. Now, more than ever, ...we need the Jedi."
Your article is extremely sunny.
I guess a lot of that "200+ billion barrels" is shale or otherwise hard to get and a more conservative estimate is around 4 billion of easy to get to oil. Which is still good and still doubles Australia's oil output, but isn't nearly as world changing as that first article would have you think.
I don't understand a lot of the specifics, but it seems like those massive 300-400 billion estimates come with a lot of scientific fine print that bears reading and makes it less cool than it sounds.
oil prices would've been a lot cheaper without OPEC, probably.
Shale Oil is everywhere. Problem is they can only extract 2% of that oil with current tech. So when you see these huge estimated oil reserve numbers reduce that by 98%. Five years ago that number was 0% and in a few years it most likely will be above 2%. US is pumping shale oil like crazy. Brakken and Eagle Ford fields are both likely to pass million barrel per day mark this year. Starting from zero just a few years ago that is impressive market shaking increase.
Problem for the rest of world is Shale Oil is very drilling intensive and US and Canada account for 70%+ of active drilling rigs. Shale Oil also requires both rigs capable of horizontal drilling and fracking. 90% of US Canadian rigs are capable of both while outside of north america less then 50% of rigs are capable of ether of the above methods.
So Australia will need thousands of drilling rigs and ten of thousands of trained workers to exploit there shale oil and will also need to find enough water to run the fracking process.
So don't expect Australia to replace Middle east anytime soon.
Last edited by Siddar; 07-15-2013 at 07:39 AM.
i'd watch a tv show thats the australian beverly hillbillies, that was my favorite show growing up. I even have Jethro's autograph! It could be like a mix of Crocodile Dundee and the original Hillbillies
I remember liking it as a kid, but man that clip is horrible. I sure had no taste as a kid.
Poor Jethro. He was typecast his entire life. He actually tried to be a serious actor at one point.
NOPE. Jethro Bo-deen.
I seem to remember that Mrs Drysdale went into canadian politics and Jed poped up as a character assassin. Completely shit on her.
Take that, Canada.
(You mean Nancy Kulp, the Drysdale's secretary, who ran for a House seat as a Democrat, out of Pennsylvania)
Here is a the best write up about Shale industry I've seen.
The lack of water is a very serious concern for any bitumen/shale production. I mean, if there's stuff there then eventually people will figure out ways to exploit it at a given price but while $20T worth of oil sounds nice, it doesn't mean shit if it would cost $22T to bring it to market.
oh ok, thought you were trying to preserve the natives way of life or something
China is considered the most likely to be the next major producer of Shale gas and oil but the industry there is moving at a snails pace compared to North America.
Argentina is said to have very good fields as far as Shale extraction is concerned. But left wing government there recently decided to nationalize the Spanish oil company that was doing almost all of the drilling in the country. The result is that none of western companies that know how to make Shale work will help them get there Shale fields into production. So end result is they have the resources but lack the knowledge of how to bring it into production.
Last edited by Siddar; 07-15-2013 at 10:31 PM.
Notice nobody talks about peak oil anymore? the problem with doom and gloom philosophies is that they don't account for change at all, changes in technology, in findings or in use/attitudes
not only does not having water suck for industry in general, but doesn't shale drilling require the usage of immense amounts of water?
Yes it does.
Well, at least the sort of bitumen production we do here in Alberta uses a tremendous amount of fresh water and that's even with a lot of pressures to use less. 158 million cubic meters in 2011 for example or 41.74 million gallons if you prefer. There just no economically feasible way to extract non-conventional oil without water and lots of it. They'd need to build some sort of delivery system to bring water in before anything else happened.
Which is, you know, exactly what is going on with shale oil/gas. Why did nobody do it before? The technology? Not so much. It's because it wasn't profitable. Why is it profitable now? Because we've hit peak oil. Crude is now ~$110/barrel so something which costs ~$60/barrel to extract (i.e. shale oil) will make money where it would never have when oil was ~$20/barrel.
Last edited by fanaskin; 07-15-2013 at 11:09 PM. Reason: density matters
Chinese are looking at building 100s of mines of pipeline to ship in seawater to use for fracking. Seems you don't need fresh water just water for fracking. But unless you luck into some bellow sea level geography you have to pay the cost of pumping all that water uphill from ocean to the drilling site.
Business/Economics 101.Which is, you know, exactly what is going on with shale oil/gas. Why did nobody do it before? The technology? Not so much. It's because it wasn't profitable. Why is it profitable now? Because we've hit peak oil. Crude is now ~$110/barrel so something which costs ~$60/barrel to extract (i.e. shale oil) will make money where it would never have when oil was ~$20/barrel.
Last edited by Big Phoenix; 07-15-2013 at 11:32 PM.
If we have another oil shock like that it will fuck us proper. The last one is STILL fucking us.
Is it? I dunno I read things like this
We were wrong on peak oil. There's enough to fry us all
A report by the oil executive Leonardo Maugeri, published by Harvard University, provides compelling evidence that a new oil boom has begun. The constraints on oil supply over the past 10 years appear to have had more to do with money than geology. The low prices before 2003 had discouraged investors from developing difficult fields. The high prices of the past few years have changed that.
actually after reading this forbes article it seems the energy requirements are much higher and the wells last like 8 years instead of 30ish, plus overzealous types hype the future of fracking.
Last edited by fanaskin; 07-16-2013 at 01:18 AM.
It's referring to those specific middle eastern fields, the ones that have been mined and providing the bulk of the oil supply over the past 40 years. Within that definition we've hit and passed peak oil. It never meant that we run out, it means that it gets more expensive. Part of that is geology, part of that is economy.
I mean you're not wrong. Most people DID understand peak oil to be "we run out" and proceeded to talk about the sky falling with accompanying bell graphs of production and appeals to zero point energy. But that's really not what it means -- or at least not what I thought it meant after doing some reading about it. It was always specific, not global. Every mine has a production curve, and we're getting a lot better at estimating it.
Edit: These were the easy mines, so it gets more expensive from now on due to a combination of geology, tech, and economy.
Last edited by Iannis; 07-16-2013 at 01:32 AM.
I'm sure there are still at least a few massive conventional oil fields left to find, not including the arctic or Antarctica. I know of one myself VERY crudely (and likely overoptimistically) estimated at 1.8 trillion barrels, and I'm sure I'm not the only one who knows of some little tidbit like that. Even if the reality is only one tenth of that its still a pretty damn big field. That one hasnt been officially discovered yet since the original finders werent licensed to be looking for oil (they were surveying for something else at the time), and since its not in a politically stable area nobody has been eager to try to open that can of worms yet. Its been out there for over 30 years, but its becoming known by more people over time as data collects from various sources, so I daresay it will come out one day. Fuck knows how they'd resolve the politics to be able to drill there without sparking another war though, since its disputed territory. And there's a good number of other fields out there that ARE publically known but havent been developed yet for various reason, not all of them technical. The Orinoco Belt in Venezuala, at just over 500 billion barrels, is the largest I think (although that one is oil-sands rather than conventional); uncertainty in the safety of investments there have been keeping foreign companies away so far. I'm guessing that, since the exploration there was properly licensed, the figures for that field are relatively reliable regarding its size.
Edit- I just poked around a little to see if it had gone public yet, and it more or less has- this is the one I've known about since 1978 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_Oil_Dispute
Last edited by VariaVespasa; 07-16-2013 at 02:05 AM.
Yep. Peak oil is essentially when oil production can not match demand from a set of defined sources (I'm not hip to oil production terminology but essentially sources that cost under a certain amount to get.) Lots of forces/people have attempted to confuse this, mostly speculators looking to make a buck with demand on futures from oil intensive businesses, so the public perception of what this means is very, very skewed.
The reality is, hitting peak oil will be both a good and a bad thing for most countries (Or if we've hit it already, it will continue to be a mixed bag). It's bad because our economy has become based on very liberal (Economics sense) resource usage, so a fluctuation in a staple commodity is going to rock the boat. Bad also because the U.S. dollar essentially gets a cheat code due to how oil reserves are traded. However, it's good because it's mostly western nations who have the technology to extract other sources of oil and use other sources of (Green? Sometimes) energy (Which will be massive markets once OPEC shits the bed.) and because many western nations have shale reserves that are even larger than the middle east reserves we've been using.
Saudi Arabia actually broke with OPEC policy a few years ago and decided to completely open their supply, because they know that due to speculation, they are essentially a small distance away from losing billions of dollars.
Last edited by Lithose; 07-16-2013 at 01:48 AM.
Explain more of how OPEC is fucking itself? (Layman's terms of course!)
I think the idea is that they'll make more money off speculation now than they'll make selling the exact same oil in 5 years.
Edit: Which if you look at the speculation bubbles, is probably true.
And this happened for decades, until this last decade. Recently, because of speculators, it's been difficult to foresee how supply will effect price. Oil speculation is very risky because of this, and so is tinkering with supply. ALSO, because of new technologies (Fracking/Green ect), there is a "soft" ceiling now where if that price goes up to high, demand will DROP, rather than prices increasing. If it stays up to high, those drops could become systemic (For example--investors might feel it's time to build networks of alternative fuel stations--because now their sure they can make money, because the price of oil stabilized above X point.)...And because of how speculation is working, this means changes in supply are....very risky.
OPEC has tried to drop the supply a few times recently, and Saudi Arabia has given them the finger and increased supply. Because it really wants to avoid that "shift" over to new sources of supply. Some other nations (As I understand it) are hurt by this, because they are less flexible in their production (So require a higher price to maintain that acceptable profit.)
*The ubiquity of oil use is also an important factor. Certain fuels are significantly cheaper, but only because there is far less demand, because of how infrastructure puts a big initial price on lots of other substances that oil does have, thanks to it's age of use. When discussing price, that "initial" infrastructure cost comes into play along with the cost for developing/producing the material itself. So like fuel X might cost 1/3 as much as oil to produce, but if you can't make plastic out of it, and there are no fueling stations for cars to use and not enough production facilities match demand if those things existed? Then those costs would need to be added to find the true market cost of using fuel X or Y. Unless the government foots the bill!
Last edited by Lithose; 07-16-2013 at 02:35 AM.
Canada has the most oil locked up in tar sands than the rest of the world. And it's not even close.
The amount of energy it would take to turn that non-oil sludge into oil and oil products is one of the main reasons why this paradigm is fooked. 233 billion barrels of pre-oil is not enough news to get the Saudis out of bed(s).
Last edited by Beef Supreme; 07-16-2013 at 06:03 PM.
There were lots of idiots predicting $600 oil just a few years ago. It was never going to happen simply because of market forces. Increase price of Oil and suddenly lots a of production that wasn't viable at the lower price suddenly becomes viable at higher price. At current $100 price conversion of coal into gasoline is most likely profitable. That makes trying to sustain even the current $100 price for oil nearly impossible in long run.
Fanaskin is right there were a huge number of idiots involved in Peal Oil fad. There were just a larger number of people that always knew Peak Oil was bullshit in the near to medium term.
Many people my self included are wondering why oil price is so high given the flood of production entering market and slow pace of global growth that has actually reduced total demand for oil.
Were at the point now where ether price of Oil drops are North America will become the new middle east of energy. How you sustain prices while at same time North America changes over from a oil importing region to a oil exporting one is simply not logical given the slow down in global growth.
Last edited by Siddar; 07-16-2013 at 06:26 PM.
"Most of the oil sands of Canada are located in three major deposits in northern Alberta. These are the Athabasca-Wabiskaw oil sands of north northeastern Alberta, the Cold Lake deposits of east northeastern Alberta, and the Peace River deposits of northwestern Alberta. Between them, they cover over 140,000 square kilometres (54,000 sq mi)—an area larger than England—and hold proven reserves of 1.75 trillion barrels (280×109 m3) of bitumen in place."
Now, they have been wrong before and we've also seen prices well below that in the last five years. Still, I don't think I'm in any position to second-guess the geeks who make a living modeling price behavior when there are hundreds of billions of dollars at stake. My $10 is on more than $135USD/bbl before we see $75USD/bbl, if we ever even see $75 again. Even in a sluggish world economy the demand for oil is increasing.
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